I read a comment that if Francoeur shortens his swing, it will cost him some bat speed and he’ll lose some power. First of all, Manny Ramirez and Vernon Wells have much much quicker swings, and they are not hurting in the power department. The idea is that Francoeur needs to use his body more efficiently to create a blend of quickness AND bat speed. Secondly, even if Francoeur does lose some bat speed, he can more than make up for it in consistency. By consistency, I mean the ability to put the barrell on the ball more often. I saw Jeff Bagwell throwing balls up over the Green Monster in a home run derby with 78-80 mph bat speed. By comparison, Nomar was around 90 mph, Sosa-Griffey-McGwire were in the 100 mph zone. Anyways, I think everyone in the Atlanta organization would be happy if Francoeur turned out Bagwell-like career hitting numbers.

Also, I saw a comment making light of Francoeur’s walk total and plate discipline. I don’t see the end goal being to increase walks. If he went up there without a bat, he would walk more than he does now, but that is not addressing the issue. An increased walk total should be the product of a quicker swing that allows Francoeur to make better judgement and improve his overall pitch selection.  If Francoeur does not make some kind of adjustment in his swing, I would imagine it will be very difficult for him to improve his plate discipline and really take full advantage of his incredible athleticism.  And, by the way, this has nothing to do with the timing of his hits, because he does seem to have a knack for driving runs in dramtic situations (walk offs, walk off grand slam, etc.).  I was at this game when he homered of Dontrelle Willis to tie it in the 9th, and it was awesome!

My opinion of Francoeur’s stats has changed from terrible to amazing. Why? Because his swing puts him at a severe, and I mean severe, disadvantage.

The comparison shows a 2006 Vernon Wells hitting a HR to left-center off on a fastball. The shot of Francoeur is also a fastball hit to left-center for a HR. The only real difference is that Francoeur’s pitch is higher, which actually gives him an advantage in the comparison, because it is requiring him to get to the ball as quick as possible and Wells‘ has more distance to travel to get to the ball.

These are both fastballs, so we know Francoeur can catch up to major league heat. I’ve seen him turn on mid-90s fastballs and he wouldn’t be in the big leagues if he couldn’t - that’s not the problem. The problem is that not every pitch is a fastball. If you set up a pitching machine at 95 mph you could probably find a number of hacks from a local softball league who could eventually find a way to make some contact. Does this mean they have MLB swings? No. It probably means they are starting their swing very early, maybe before they even see the ball, because they know what is coming and where it is going to end up.

I see Francoeur’s hands making their first real significant move forward as his heel begins to plant is frames 10-11. This doesn’t happen with Wells until frames 12-13. In the first look at Francoeur, we saw a 1 frame difference in the footplant compared to Manny Ramirez, and that was at 30 frames per second. This comparison is 60 frames per second, so it follows there is a 2 frame difference.

Again, these clips are synchronized to contact, so they are reaching the “finish line” at the same time. But let me show you where they are in relation to each other at footplant:

Francoeur’s footplant (frame 11):

Wells' footplant (frame 13):

Looking at Francoeur’s bat position in relation to Wells, it’s clear that he has some catching up to do. If you just took Francoeur’s bat position in the second picture (at Wells’ footplant) and put it in the first picture (Francoeur’s footplant), you’d be in business. It isn’t just the bat angle, either - Francoeur’s hands are quite a bit further from his back shoulder, meaning he will really have to pull them in. But the real difficulty would be in trying to get Francoeur to use his body like Wells does - in this case more efficient use of the body to generate bat speed AND quickness.

Now Wells has never drawn a ton of walks (stats), but it's clear he has much better plate discipline. More walks, less strikeouts, swings at better pitches more often = better hitter.  With Francoeur, I don’t think it will be as simple as waiting for his pitch, because, well, he can’t afford to wait. The ‘swing away’ approach actually fits Francoeur, and I would tell him to keep it up if he doesn’t plan on changing his swing. Otherwise, pitchers will just throw fastballs by him.

If a guy with Wells’ swing has Francoeur’s numbers, then you can start saying he might not be too good of a hitter. But the fact that Francouer has those numbers with that swing, you have to say Francoeur has some serious potential if he can make some adjustments. Sure you can be happy with the 30 HR and 100 RBI, but again, if you look at the number of AB’s that it is taking to put those up, it isn’t so impressive anymore.

By the way, Francoeur is #151 in MLB right now in OPS.  You can draw your own conclusions about the company he is in there.

Having pointed all of this out, I still would not envy the person in the organization that pulls the trigger on “changing” Francoeur. High risk - high reward. If he struggles, then someone has to take the fall for messing with the golden boy, first round superstar. If it clicks, then you have a legit superstar, face of the franchise, hometown hero. But all Francoeur has to do while he is in the outfield is look over to his right and he will find another athletic Atlanta Brave who made a dramatic adjustment to his swing that paid huge dividends (I’m talking Andruw Jones change from ‘04 to ‘05 here). At this point, it is probably more likely that he is left alone, because he is young and “has time to develop”.